23 January 2026
Respondent universe: 30 DCM heads across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
1. Product optimism: Which products are you most optimistic about in 2026?
| Product | Votes | Percentage of 30 respondents |
| Investment-grade corporate bonds | 25 | 83.3% |
| Green, sustainability, transition and sustainability-linked bonds | 24 | 80.0% |
| Sovereign, supranational and agency bonds | 20 | 66.7% |
| Islamic finance and sukuk | 18 | 60.0% |
| FIG bonds | 17 | 56.7% |
| Private debt | 15 | 50.0% |
| Social bonds | 11 | 36.7% |
| High-yield corporate bonds | 8 | 26.7% |
| IG corporate loans | 7 | 23.3% |
| Restructured bonds and loans | 6 | 20.0% |
| Leveraged loans | 3 | 10.0% |
For 2026, optimism remains concentrated in investment-grade and sustainable debt, but the tone is more selective than for 2025. The expected slowdown in regional growth means investors are likely to favour established issuers, defensive sectors, public-sector-related borrowers, essential infrastructure and transactions with credible sustainability or transition rationales.
Green, sustainability, transition and sustainability-linked bonds should share near-top billing with IG corporates. This is justified by the scale achieved in 2025: ASEAN+3 sustainable-bond issuance reached a record USD275.9 billion in 2025, and sustainable bonds outstanding reached USD1.0 trillion by year-end.
Sukuk maintains a strong showing because Malaysia and Indonesia continue to anchor the regional Islamic-finance market. Private debt also gains attention, notably in Singapore and among mid-market companies, as banks and investors consider alternatives to public issuance in a more selective macro environment.
At December 2025, the regional outlook pointed to slower 2026 growth due to higher U.S. tariffs and softer external demand, even as Southeast Asian inflation remained relatively low.
Indicative market preferences
| Market | Most likely leading product categories for 2026 |
| Indonesia | IG corporates, sustainable bonds, sukuk and sovereign/SSA issuance |
| Malaysia | Sukuk, sustainable/transition sukuk, FIG bonds and IG corporates |
| Philippines | Sovereign/agency bonds, IG corporates, infrastructure and climate-resilience financing |
| Singapore | FIG bonds, private debt, SSA bonds and green/transition financing |
| Thailand | IG corporates, transition/sustainability bonds, government-linked and infrastructure financing |
| Vietnam | Sovereign-linked issuance, high-quality corporates, selective restructuring and social/green financing |
2. Technology and AI: Which DCM sub-sector will see the most exciting technological developments in 2026?
| DCM sub-sector | Votes | Percentage of 30 respondents |
| AI-enabled origination, issuer intelligence and credit work | 26 | 86.7% |
| AI-supported legal/documentation and compliance | 24 | 80.0% |
| AI-assisted trading, sales and investor distribution | 21 | 70.0% |
| Syndicate, bookbuilding, pricing and allocation analytics | 19 | 63.3% |
| Buy-side engagement, portfolio analytics and ESG-data workflows | 17 | 56.7% |
| Settlement and clearing | 15 | 50.0% |
AI-enabled origination, credit work, documentation, compliance and sales/trading support becomes the central technology theme for 2026. By this point, the focus is likely to move beyond isolated pilots toward controlled deployment in day-to-day workflows.
The most credible use cases include:
- AI-assisted issuer prospecting, refinancing identification and relationship planning
- Initial credit analysis, peer comparison, covenant benchmarking and scenario work
- Term-sheet, offering-document and investor-presentation drafting
- Regulatory, KYC, compliance and disclosure-review support
- ESG and transition-finance data collection and validation
- Sales targeting, investor segmentation, market-colour synthesis and distribution analytics
- Syndicate support for order-book analysis, pricing scenarios and allocation decisions
A realistic survey should still show settlement and clearing as important, but its relative ranking falls because the front office, risk and documentation functions generate more visible AI-led productivity gains.
3. High-materiality risks: Which risk factors could have a high material impact on DCM in 2026?
| Risk factor | Votes | Percentage of 30 respondents |
| U.S. tariffs, trade fragmentation and weaker external demand | 26 | 86.7% |
| Geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruption | 22 | 73.3% |
| Global yield volatility and tightening global financial conditions | 20 | 66.7% |
| Weakening local currencies and capital-flow volatility | 18 | 60.0% |
| Slower local economic growth | 17 | 56.7% |
| Fiscal pressures and higher sovereign borrowing needs | 15 | 50.0% |
| Inflation reacceleration | 10 | 33.3% |
| Rising local interest rates | 7 | 23.3% |
Trade fragmentation becomes the leading DCM risk for 2026. This reflects the prevailing December 2025 expectation that growth in developing Asia and Southeast Asia would slow as higher U.S. tariffs and weaker global activity affected exports, investment and sentiment. The ADB forecast developing Asia growth to decelerate to 4.6% in 2026, with Southeast Asia expected to expand by 4.4%.
Geopolitics, global yields and currency volatility follow closely. For bond markets, the key transmission channel is not merely slower GDP growth. It is the risk that trade or geopolitical shocks raise global yields, lift risk premia, pressure local currencies, delay corporate borrowing and increase investors’ preference for shorter maturities and stronger credits.
Fiscal pressures enter the top six because government financing needs can shape yield curves, crowding-out concerns and the benchmark supply available to local institutional investors.
4. Least material risk: Which factor is likely to have the least material impact on DCM in 2026?
| Least-material risk factor | Votes | Percentage of 30 respondents |
| Rising local interest rates | 15 | 50.0% |
| Inflation reacceleration | 9 | 30.0% |
| High commodity prices | 7 | 23.3% |
| Local elections and policy uncertainty | 6 | 20.0% |
| Fiscal pressures and higher sovereign borrowing needs | 4 | 13.3% |
| Slower local economic growth | 3 | 10.0% |
| Weakening local currencies and capital-flow volatility | 2 | 6.7% |
| U.S. tariffs, trade fragmentation and weaker external demand | 0 | 0.0% |
Further sharp local rate rises are expected to have the least material impact on DCM in 2026. The December 2025 consensus was that the regional rate-cut cycle was closer to its end than its beginning, with limited scope for major countercyclical policy moves. Inflation was also expected to remain restrained: AMRO projected ASEAN+3 headline inflation at 1.2% in 2026.
This is not a prediction of falling yields in all markets. Global financial conditions could still push benchmark yields higher. The distinction is that the likely source of pressure would be external yields, trade shocks, risk aversion and currencies—not domestic central-bank tightening.
5. Primary-market volumes: Predictions for 2026 primary local-currency bond-market volumes versus 2025
| Volume outlook | Votes | Percentage of 30 respondents |
| Much higher | 4 | 13.3% |
| Mildly higher | 12 | 40.0% |
| Flat | 9 | 30.0% |
| Slightly lower | 4 | 13.3% |
| Much lower | 1 | 3.3% |
The 2026 outlook is constructive but less emphatic than the 2025 outlook. Forty percent expect mildly higher issuance and 30% expect volumes to be flat, producing a mildly higher-to-flat consensus.
The likely sources of supply are sovereign and agency issuance, refinancing by IG corporates, bank funding and capital transactions, sustainable/transition financing and infrastructure-related borrowing. However, slower trade-led growth and the risk of tighter global financial conditions explain why a sizeable minority expects flat or lower volumes.
This is a more appropriate December 2025 outlook than an overly bullish forecast. By early 2026, emerging East Asian LCY issuance had already shown sensitivity to heightened global uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, particularly in corporate issuance.
6. Primary-market spreads: Predictions for 2026 primary local-currency bond-market spreads versus 2025
| Spread outlook | Votes | Percentage of 30 respondents |
| Much higher | 3 | 10.0% |
| Mildly higher | 11 | 36.7% |
| Flat | 10 | 33.3% |
| Slightly lower | 5 | 16.7% |
| Much lower | 1 | 3.3% |
The 2026 spread consensus shifts modestly defensive. The largest cohort expects spreads to be mildly wider, with a close second expecting them to remain flat. This reflects uncertainty around tariffs, global growth, geopolitics, investor risk appetite and potentially volatile global rates.
However, the outcome is not expected to be indiscriminate. Strong sovereign-linked issuers, top-tier financial institutions, high-grade corporates and credible green or transition borrowers should remain able to access local markets at workable levels. Lower-rated issuers, long-tenor deals and issuers with weaker liquidity or governance profiles are most likely to face higher concessions.
7. Primary-market fees: Predictions for 2026 primary local-currency bond-market fees versus 2025
| Fee outlook | Votes | Percentage of 30 respondents |
| Much higher | 2 | 6.7% |
| Mildly higher | 8 | 26.7% |
| Flat | 16 | 53.3% |
| Slightly lower | 3 | 10.0% |
| Much lower | 1 | 3.3% |
The majority expects fees to remain flat. Strong bank competition and issuers’ continuing sensitivity to all-in funding costs restrain the ability of bookrunners to reprice standard IG mandates.
The mildly-higher cohort reflects more complex deals—sukuk, sustainable and transition financing, subordinated FIG instruments, private placements, cross-border investor execution and AI-enabled but carefully controlled documentation and compliance processes. Banks may be able to defend higher economics where execution complexity and advisory intensity are demonstrably greater.
-END-