The long-awaited rate cuts are about to arrive. Previously neglected in favour of hotter tech stocks, are S-REITs primed to make a comeback? In our latest industry report on the S-REITS sector, our analysts state that REITs’ current valuations are priced in a higher for longer interest rate environment, and this is a good investment opportunity given that a rate pivot is on the horizon.
Within our coverage, Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust had the lowest aggregate leverage as of June 30, 2024, while Suntec REIT had the highest as of June 30, 2024. With an interest rate pivot on the horizon, we think that highly leveraged REITs will get some breathing space, while REITs with low leverage might be the first to enter the market and grow through acquisitions.
What else is in this report?
- Office Outlook
- Office leasing demand has moderated in recent quarters as companies turn cautious amid a high interest-rate environment and uncertain economic outlook. We expect leasing demand to remain weak as companies focus on cost control.
- In the near term, we expect CBD office rents to stay flat as limited office supply offsets weak office demand. Beyond that, we think that interest rates cut by the Fed will stimulate business expansion activities and drive up office demand. With projected supply staying tight for the next three years, we think that any strong pick-up in office demand will push up office rents, benefitting CBD office landlords.
- Retail Outlook
- While there have been a few exits and consolidation of retail space among retailers, demand remains healthy with the entry of overseas brands looking to expand outside their home country. The Orchard area saw the strongest take-up in retail space, driving vacancy rates to the lowest since the pandemic.
- Prime retail rents for the Orchard area and suburban malls have improved due to tight vacancy rates and healthy demand for retail space. We expect market rents to continue to grow as retailers remain optimistic about the continued recovery of business and leisure travel, which is supported by a healthy pipeline of international events. While we anticipate outbound travel to result in some domestic spending leakage, we think that overall shopper traffic and spending in suburban malls will remain resilient.
- Logistics/Industrial Outlook
- Looking ahead, we expect warehouses to continue to outperform other industrial assets, with better occupancy rates and higher rental growth, given more favorable market demand and supply dynamics.
- Consolidations in the technology, banking, and financial sectors, combined with the completion of new business parks, have driven up business park vacancy rates. Nevertheless, better located business parks close to the city fringe outperformed business parks further away. We expect this trend to persist, given that the upcoming supply of new business parks is located outside the city fringe.
SOURCE: Morningstar Research Pte Limited