IS ASIA MISSING OUT ON THE GROWTH OF PRIVATE MARKETS?

A global industrial renaissance, driven by the energy transition and advancing digitalisation, has created demand for trillions of dollars in investment over the next decade alone. Simultaneously, private capital markets are evolving to offer parallels for bank or bond lending and equity markets. How are these trends coming together for Asia’s high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs)?


HSBC Global Private Banking

“Private markets have mostly been reserved for institutional investors, due to their complexity,” says Mathieu Forcioli, Global and Asia Pacific Head of Alternatives at HSBC Global Private Banking “But in recent years, private market managers have focused a lot more on HNWIs.”

McKinsey estimates that private assets under management exceeded USD13 trillion in 20231, and Bain & Company predicts this could surpass USD65 trillion by 20322 – bigger than the European Union economy today3.

In 2024, Asia sits at the heart of economic development, driving 46% of global GDP4, yet its wealthy individuals are barely scratching the surface of private markets.

In research conducted by HSBC Global Private Banking in 2024, only 25% of Hong Kong’s HNW investors said they had access to a wide range of alternative investment products, but nearly three times that said they would be confident investing in them5. Similar access gaps appear in data for mainland China, Singapore, Taiwan and India. 

Source: HSBC Global Private Banking, data from September 2024

For private markets professionals, the asset class offers multiple ways to gain exposure to some of the world’s most transformative megatrends:

  • Digitalisation 
  • Decarbonisation 
  • Deglobalisation 

“We are seeing public to private, corporate carveouts and partnership deals being some of the most fruitful areas to invest in the current environment.” says Alisa Wood, a Partner at KKR in New York. “We also overlay these different types of transactions with sector, geographic and thematic views, but to us it is more important to buy good companies we can make great, to strengthen their market position and management while also driving operational excellence and growth.”

Here’s why some experts see opportunities for Asian investors to tap into a private asset super-cycle.

Infrastructure appeal

Digitalisation is changing how the world works, and private capital is helping finance the infrastructure needed to handle the growing data load.

Meanwhile, the global drive for decarbonisation creates investment opportunities in everything from renewable energy and transmission assets, to charging stations for electric vehicles and utility-scale batteries. Deglobalisation pressures are having an impact, too, as reshoring, friendshoring and supply-chain de-risking drive demand for infrastructure in new locations, particularly in energy and logistics. 

“A convergence of global megatrends is shining a spotlight on infrastructure. Investing in infrastructure assets, which form the backbone of the global economy, offers investors a compelling combination of income, low correlation to other asset classes, inflation protection and downside risk mitigation,” says Nick Goodman, President and Chief Financial Officer, Brookfield Corporation.

Resetting the real estate cycle

Real estate has been through a challenging period, but a pivot in the rate cycle could help increase the sector’s appeal. 

“Key factors driving a US real estate recovery are improving debt and transaction markets, driven by lower interest rates and lower spreads, as well as a dramatic decline in new supply,” says A.J. Agarwal, Senior Managing Director at Blackstone.

Real estate offers inflation-hedged income and capital growth. Valuations tend to move slowly up or down, making it a useful portfolio anchor. 

The asset class also intersects with megatrends. Artificial intelligence is driving demand for data centre properties, while deglobalisation and consumer expectations of ever-faster delivery increase the need for local and regional industrial sites or warehouses. 

An undersupply of housing also boosts appetite for rental properties, while buildings with green profiles could command higher valuations.

Diverse opportunities in private credit and equity

A constrained environment for bank lending has helped to boost private credit. According to McKinsey, direct lenders had a 57% share of buyout loan volume in the first half of 2024.6 Falling interest rates may now help to mitigate defaults – but they are not expected to fall so far as to dent demand for credit as an asset class.

“We view private credit as a USD40 trillion market opportunity spanning corporate and asset-backed finance, a majority of which is investment grade,” says Edward Moon, Partner, Head of APAC Global Wealth Management at Apollo.

Private credit contributes to funding the energy transition, which often requires long-term, flexible financing that is unavailable through public markets. To move quickly on digitalisation or deglobalisation strategies, private companies may also seek customised private loans.

Private equity, meanwhile, offers a scale and scope that is difficult to match. Most companies are private: nearly 90% of all companies with more than USD250 million in revenues, according to Blackstone. And it is an asset class that has consistently outperformed public equity.7

The difficulty for private investors has been access, but this is changing. “Investing in private equity is more accessible thanks to the rise of innovative open-ended private perpetual funds built for high-net-worth individuals and the mass affluent,” says Ed Huang, Head of Private Wealth Solutions, Asia Pacific, at Blackstone.

Building allocations

Even as Asia’s public markets continue to expand and attract global capital, the region’s own investors may be overlooking the vast potential of global private markets, whether it is in private equity, infrastructure, real estate or private lending. 

As transformative megatrends continue to unfold, the private asset potential for diversification, higher returns, and lower volatility also expands.

Remarks

  1. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-capital/our-insights/mckinseys-private-markets-annual-review
  2. Private market assets to grow at more than twice the rate of public assets, reaching up to $65 trillion by 2032, Bain & Company finds | Bain & Company
  3. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/EU
  4. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/APQ
  5. HSBC Global Private Banking internal benchmark study conducted globally, 10 September 2024
  6. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-capital/our-insights/ten-private-markets-considerations-shaping-2024-so-far
  7. https://pws.blackstone.com/apac/essentials-of-private-equity

Disclaimers

Investments in emerging markets may be extremely volatile and subject to sudden fluctuations of varying magnitude due to a wide range of direct and indirect influences. Such characteristics can lead to considerable losses being incurred by those exposed to such markets.

This article is not a personalised communication from HSBC to you and does not constitute and should not be construed as legal, tax or investment advice or a solicitation of the sale or recommendation of any product or service. You should not make any investment decisions based mainly or solely on this article. All investments involve risks and may experience upward or downward movements and may even become valueless.

Issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited