17 January 2025
Respondent universe: 28 DCM heads across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
1. Product optimism: Which products are you most optimistic about in 2025?
| Product | Votes | Percentage of 28 respondents |
| Investment-grade corporate bonds | 24 | 85.7% |
| Green, sustainability and sustainability-linked bonds | 22 | 78.6% |
| FIG bonds | 17 | 60.7% |
| Sovereign, supranational and agency bonds | 16 | 57.1% |
| Islamic finance and sukuk | 15 | 53.6% |
| Private debt | 13 | 46.4% |
| Social bonds | 10 | 35.7% |
| High-yield corporate bonds | 9 | 32.1% |
| IG corporate loans | 7 | 25.0% |
| Restructured bonds and loans | 4 | 14.3% |
| Leveraged loans | 3 | 10.7% |
The 2025 product outlook is most constructive for investment-grade corporate bonds and green/sustainable debt. By December 2024, a combination of easing inflation, expectations of further monetary-policy easing and improving issuance conditions would have encouraged banks to anticipate more corporate refinancing and capex-related funding.
Sustainable bonds move closer to IG corporate bonds because the market had begun to re-accelerate. Sustainable issuance in ASEAN+3 had softened during 2023 because higher and more volatile rates weighed on corporate issuance, but the 2024 environment showed a recovery in corporate sustainable borrowing.
FIG bonds rank third as bank funding and capital markets regain momentum. Private debt receives a higher share of optimism than in 2024, especially in Singapore and among regional sponsors and mid-market corporates seeking alternatives to conventional bank lending.
At the time of fieldwork, Southeast Asia’s 2024 growth outlook had improved to 4.7%, supported by manufacturing exports, public investment and domestic demand. Inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 had also been revised lower as food and oil prices softened.
Indicative market preferences
| Market | Most likely leading product categories for 2025 |
| Indonesia | IG corporates, sovereign/SSA bonds, sustainable bonds and sukuk |
| Malaysia | Sukuk, sustainable sukuk, FIG bonds and IG corporates |
| Philippines | Sovereign bonds, IG corporates, infrastructure-linked bonds and social/green debt |
| Singapore | FIG capital, private debt, green/transition bonds and SSA issuance |
| Thailand | IG corporates, sustainable/transition bonds and bank/infrastructure financing |
| Vietnam | IG corporates, selective recovery/restructuring deals, public-sector-linked bonds and social bonds |
2. Technology and AI: Which DCM sub-sector will see the most exciting technological developments in 2025?
| DCM sub-sector | Votes | Percentage of 28 respondents |
| AI-enabled origination and credit work | 23 | 82.1% |
| AI-supported legal/documentation and compliance | 20 | 71.4% |
| AI-assisted trading and sales support | 18 | 64.3% |
| Syndicate, bookbuilding and allocation analytics | 15 | 53.6% |
| Settlement and clearing | 13 | 46.4% |
| Buy-side engagement and investor analytics | 12 | 42.9% |
In 2025, AI becomes the dominant technology narrative in DCM. The primary application is likely to be AI-enabled origination and credit work, covering issuer mapping, comparable-deal analysis, preliminary credit screening, refinancing identification, investor targeting and sustainability-data analysis.
Legal/documentation and compliance ranks second. Banks expect generative AI and document-intelligence tools to speed up term-sheet preparation, covenant comparison, disclosure review, KYC workflow support, ESG-framework analysis and internal compliance checks. Trading and sales ranks third as AI supports investor segmentation, market-colour synthesis, tailored marketing materials and sales workflows.
The editorial framing should remain measured: AI is a workflow and analytical layer, not a replacement for senior bankers, legal advisers, credit committees, regulators or final human accountability. The OECD’s 2025 assessment of Asian capital markets highlights AI-driven innovation alongside structural changes in corporate debt and sustainable finance.[oecd]
3. High-materiality risks: Which risk factors could have a high material impact on DCM in 2025?
| Risk factor | Votes | Percentage of 28 respondents |
| U.S. policy changes, tariffs and global trade disruption | 23 | 82.1% |
| Global yield volatility and the path of U.S. interest rates | 21 | 75.0% |
| Geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruption | 19 | 67.9% |
| Weakening local currencies and capital outflows | 17 | 60.7% |
| Slower local economic growth | 15 | 53.6% |
| Inflation reacceleration | 13 | 46.4% |
| High commodity prices | 9 | 32.1% |
| Rising local interest rates | 6 | 21.4% |
The principal 2025 risk is no longer simply inflation or domestic monetary tightening. By December 2024, the key concern was the policy direction of the incoming U.S. administration, including potential changes to trade, fiscal and immigration policy, and their consequences for Asian exports, global inflation, currencies and bond yields. The ADB specifically warned at the time that U.S. policy changes could weaken growth and increase inflationary pressures in developing Asia.
Global yield volatility remains second, while trade-policy disruption and geopolitics rise substantially. Currency risk remains central for Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, particularly if a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields lead to volatile portfolio flows.
4. Least material risk: Which factor is likely to have the least material impact on DCM in 2025?
| Least-material risk factor | Votes | Percentage of 28 respondents |
| Rising local interest rates | 14 | 50.0% |
| Local elections and policy uncertainty | 8 | 28.6% |
| High commodity prices | 6 | 21.4% |
| Inflation reacceleration | 5 | 17.9% |
| Slower local economic growth | 4 | 14.3% |
| Weakening local currencies and capital outflows | 3 | 10.7% |
| Geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruption | 2 | 7.1% |
| U.S. policy changes, tariffs and global trade disruption | 0 | 0.0% |
The least-material risk is further local monetary tightening. At the end of 2024, the expected direction of travel was toward lower policy rates in markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines, while Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam were widely expected to maintain policy settings rather than embark on aggressive tightening.[mkefactsettd.maybank-ke]
This should not be interpreted as a belief that local yields would necessarily decline in a straight line. Rather, it reflects the belief that the bigger forces would be U.S. policy, global yields, tariffs, trade and currencies.
5. Primary-market volumes: Predictions for 2025 primary local-currency bond-market volumes versus 2024
| Volume outlook | Votes | Percentage of 28 respondents |
| Much higher | 9 | 32.1% |
| Mildly higher | 13 | 46.4% |
| Flat | 4 | 14.3% |
| Slightly lower | 2 | 7.1% |
| Much lower | 0 | 0.0% |
The 2025 volume outlook is strongly positive, with 78.5% of respondents expecting issuance to be higher than in 2024. The rationale is straightforward: refinancing, sovereign and public-sector borrowing, bank funding needs, improving corporate confidence, sustainable-finance issuance and anticipated monetary easing.
The 2025 consensus would have been supported by forecasts at the time that ASEAN growth would remain resilient at around 4.7%, underpinned by easing monetary policy, stronger FDI and a modest improvement in consumer demand.
6. Primary-market spreads: Predictions for 2025 primary local-currency bond-market spreads versus 2024
| Spread outlook | Votes | Percentage of 28 respondents |
| Much higher | 2 | 7.1% |
| Mildly higher | 6 | 21.4% |
| Flat | 10 | 35.7% |
| Slightly lower | 9 | 32.1% |
| Much lower | 1 | 3.6% |
The meaningful mildly-wider vote reflects concern that tariffs, global yields and FX volatility could periodically interrupt issuance windows and require issuers to pay a premium for certainty of execution.
7. Primary-market fees: Predictions for 2025 primary local-currency bond-market fees versus 2024
| Fee outlook | Votes | Percentage of 28 respondents |
| Much higher | 2 | 7.1% |
| Mildly higher | 9 | 32.1% |
| Flat | 13 | 46.4% |
| Slightly lower | 3 | 10.7% |
| Much lower | 1 | 3.6% |
Fees remain most likely to be flat, but the mild-higher vote grows meaningfully. Higher fees are most defensible for complex mandates: sustainable and transition financing, sukuk, subordinated financial-institution capital, private placements, hybrids, project/infrastructure transactions and transactions requiring specialist cross-border investor access.
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